New data visualizations from the NASA Center for Climate Simulation and NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio at Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md., show how climate models used in the new report from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimate possible temperature and precipitation pattern changes throughout the 21st century.
For the IPCC's Physical Science Basis and Summary for Policymakers reports,
scientists referenced an international climate modeling effort to study how the
Earth might respond to four different scenarios of carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gas emissions throughout the 21st century. The Summary for
Policymakers, the first official piece of the group's Fifth Assessment Report,
was released Fri., Sept. 27.
This modeling effort, called the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase
5 (CMIP5), includes dozens of climate models from institutions around the world,
including from NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
Models used by the IPCC estimate global temperature
and precipitation patterns will change throughout the 21st century given current
rising greenhouse gas levels. This video depicts a scenario in which carbon
dioxide concentrations reach 670 parts per million by 2100, up from around 400
ppm today.
Image Credit: NASA Center for Climate Simulation/NASA Goddard
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To produce visualizations that show temperature and precipitation changes
similar to those included in the IPCC report, the NASA Center for Climate
Simulation calculated average temperature and precipitation changes from models
that ran the four different emissions scenarios. The final products are visual
representations of how much temperature and precipitation patterns would change
through 2100 compared to the historical average from the end of the 20th
century.
The changes shown in these maps compare an average of the model projections
to the average temperature and precipitation benchmarks observed from 1971-2000.
This baseline is slightly different from the baseline used in the IPCC report,
which was 1986-2005. Because the reference period from 1986-2005 was slightly
warmer than 1971-2000, the visualizations are slightly different than those in
the report, even though the same model data is used.
Related Links
NASA Media Resources Available on New International
Climate Report
NASA will make scientists and data visualizations available to journalists
Friday, Sept. 27, with the release of a portion of the Fifth Assessment Report
from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The IPCC will issue the "Summary for Policymakers" of the "Physical Science
Basis of Climate Change" section of the report in Stockholm on Friday and the
full text of that section Monday, Sept. 30. Additional sections will be released
in the coming months.
More than 25 NASA scientists helped author and review the Fifth Assessment Report. NASA also will provide unique data visualizations of projected temperature and precipitation changes for the 21st century, based on climate models referenced in the report.
NASA satellite observations, scientific analysis and climate modeling contributed to the report's conclusions on such topics as temperature change, sea level rise, changes to glaciers and ice sheets, and Earth's global energy balance. NASA climate models contributed to the international modeling effort to project climate change throughout the 21st century. NASA scientists also played a key role in evaluating climate model accuracy by comparing models to NASA satellite observations.
The following NASA scientists -- listed with their hosting NASA facilities and points of contacts for media interviews -- participated in the "Physical Science Basis of Climate Change" and the "Summary for Policymakers":
Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York:
• Drew Shindell, coordinating lead author, Chapter 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing; drafting author, Summary for Policymakers
• Gavin Schmidt, expert reviewer, Chapters: 1: Introduction; 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives; 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing, and; 9: Evaluation of Climate Models
Media contact: Leslie McCarthy at leslie.m.mccarthy@nasa.gov or 212-678-5507.
Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.:
• Joey Comiso, coordinating lead author, Chapter 4: Observations: Cryosphere
• Peter Hildebrand, expert reviewer, Chapter 4: Observations: Cryosphere
Media contact: Rani Gran at rani.c.gran@nasa.gov or 301-286-2483.
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.:
• Graeme Stephens, contributing author, Chapter 7: Clouds and Aerosols; lead author, Chapter 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing; expert reviewer, Chapter 9: Evaluation of Climate Models
• Eric Rignot (JPL/University of California-Irvine), lead author, Chapter 4: Observations: Cryosphere
• Duane Waliser, expert reviewer, Chapter 9: Evaluation of Climate Models
Media contact: Alan Buis at alan.d.buis@jpl.nasa.gov or 818-354-0474.
The visualizations of climate model projections show how global temperature and precipitation patterns are expected to change through the year 2100. The projections are based on the carbon emissions scenarios used in "Physical Science Basis of Climate Change." The visualizations will be available online at 8 a.m. EDT Sept. 27 at:
For more information about NASA programs, visit:
More than 25 NASA scientists helped author and review the Fifth Assessment Report. NASA also will provide unique data visualizations of projected temperature and precipitation changes for the 21st century, based on climate models referenced in the report.
NASA satellite observations, scientific analysis and climate modeling contributed to the report's conclusions on such topics as temperature change, sea level rise, changes to glaciers and ice sheets, and Earth's global energy balance. NASA climate models contributed to the international modeling effort to project climate change throughout the 21st century. NASA scientists also played a key role in evaluating climate model accuracy by comparing models to NASA satellite observations.
The following NASA scientists -- listed with their hosting NASA facilities and points of contacts for media interviews -- participated in the "Physical Science Basis of Climate Change" and the "Summary for Policymakers":
Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York:
• Drew Shindell, coordinating lead author, Chapter 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing; drafting author, Summary for Policymakers
• Gavin Schmidt, expert reviewer, Chapters: 1: Introduction; 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives; 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing, and; 9: Evaluation of Climate Models
Media contact: Leslie McCarthy at leslie.m.mccarthy@nasa.gov or 212-678-5507.
Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.:
• Joey Comiso, coordinating lead author, Chapter 4: Observations: Cryosphere
• Peter Hildebrand, expert reviewer, Chapter 4: Observations: Cryosphere
Media contact: Rani Gran at rani.c.gran@nasa.gov or 301-286-2483.
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.:
• Graeme Stephens, contributing author, Chapter 7: Clouds and Aerosols; lead author, Chapter 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing; expert reviewer, Chapter 9: Evaluation of Climate Models
• Eric Rignot (JPL/University of California-Irvine), lead author, Chapter 4: Observations: Cryosphere
• Duane Waliser, expert reviewer, Chapter 9: Evaluation of Climate Models
Media contact: Alan Buis at alan.d.buis@jpl.nasa.gov or 818-354-0474.
The visualizations of climate model projections show how global temperature and precipitation patterns are expected to change through the year 2100. The projections are based on the carbon emissions scenarios used in "Physical Science Basis of Climate Change." The visualizations will be available online at 8 a.m. EDT Sept. 27 at:
For more information about NASA programs, visit:
NASA
Guillermo Gonzalo Sánchez Achutegui
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